Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.674572 2.857517 3.053323 3.279640 3.535490 3.817541 4.154486
2025-02-16 2.381848 2.624941 2.899483 3.236409 3.644368 4.130082 4.764535
2025-02-23 2.203022 2.478751 2.801768 3.215406 3.742420 4.408755 5.346254
2025-03-02 2.067554 2.362789 2.718421 3.189237 3.814360 4.645865 5.895651
2025-03-09 1.959731 2.267890 2.647631 3.164555 3.875684 4.865316 6.447474
2025-03-16 1.877692 2.197037 2.598572 3.159085 3.955937 5.113854 7.083036
2025-03-23 1.824884 2.158322 2.585967 3.198172 4.098383 5.467860 7.962498
2025-03-30 1.747302 2.082054 2.517383 3.151866 4.107997 5.613274 8.506623
2025-04-06 1.677173 2.011441 2.451420 3.102900 4.106452 5.736866 9.035337
2025-04-13 1.601967 1.930299 2.366295 3.019460 4.042299 5.744452 9.330062
2025-04-20 1.572008 1.908363 2.361340 3.052831 4.165240 6.092424 10.448145
2025-04-27 1.553838 1.901177 2.375977 3.115614 4.341194 6.563379 12.027332
2025-05-04 1.530026 1.885704 2.378713 3.161571 4.496350 7.028974 13.838507
2025-05-11 1.486783 1.841204 2.337018 3.134499 4.520933 7.236581 15.037801
2025-05-18 1.448977 1.802778 2.302204 3.115745 4.557938 7.476352 16.478781
2025-05-25 1.412169 1.764298 2.265383 3.091014 4.580943 7.689150 17.971958
2025-06-01 1.378090 1.728449 2.230815 3.067595 4.603737 7.905627 19.648498
2025-06-08 1.350748 1.701311 2.208125 3.062403 4.660713 8.214615 21.998866
2025-06-15 1.335411 1.690984 2.210449 3.099501 4.804521 8.771752 26.214304
2025-06-22 1.301589 1.652383 2.167456 3.055550 4.779601 8.884025 28.195588
2025-06-29 1.268901 1.614532 2.124296 3.009049 4.745480 8.966497 30.155428
2025-07-06 1.230148 1.566730 2.064090 2.929751 4.636704 8.823802 30.462769
2025-07-13 1.218471 1.558859 2.066352 2.961474 4.766448 9.392980 37.189319